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☆ Meet the group preparing for a Soviet Union-type collapse of the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the people preparing for the collapse of the financial system . The big storyPreparing for the worstAdobe; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIOpinions fluctuate on the economy, but one group has a decidedly strong take. In the subreddit r/economiccollapse, users are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy , writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Further down the economic totem pole, ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling to make ends meet . 3 things in techAlex Wong/Getty Images, STR / Contributor/Getty Images, Stephane De Sakutin/Contributor/Getty Images, Abanti Chowdhury/BIHow Mark Zuckerberg turned against the news.

Persons: —, Chelsea Jia Feng, Jennifer Sor, Jennifer, aren't, Tyler, there's, Neil Dutta, Jim Simons, annualized, Alex Wong, Stephane De Sakutin, Abanti Chowdhury, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Altman, Alyssa Powell, Rick Doblin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Chelsea, Macro, Renaissance Technologies, Big Tech, Apple, FDA, FOX Locations: Soviet Union, China, Washington, Beijing, New York, London, Chicago

☆ Why America Still Can't Get Rid of High Prices, Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Typically, price increases are a slow-moving process, so it is rare to see core inflation accelerate this much this quickly. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has found longer-run expectations for inflation have leveled out at 2% — the Fed's target. These one-offs have had an outsize impact on the overall inflation picture. Ahead of 2024, the contribution from acyclical components to core inflation was essentially zero. The strong growth in private demand suggests that second-quarter GDP could be even more robust.

Persons: I've Organizations: America, Federal Reserve, PCE, Atlanta Fed Locations: Real

☆ Two rate cuts this year is still reasonable, says Renaissance's Neil Dutta
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo rate cuts this year is still reasonable, says Renaissance's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss what today's CPI report could mean for the Fed's next move.

Persons: Renaissance's Neil Dutta Neil Dutta

☆ Employee Productivity Is Booming As Workers Get Better at Their Jobs
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-21 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

At the simplest level, labor productivity is how much output (widgets, meals, spreadsheet computation) one person can complete in an hour. Employers were running around with fishnets trying to find people, and workers used their leverage. By contrast, the late 1990s were a period of higher productivity growth and underestimated growth, starting the year at 2% but ending closer to 4%. But it's probably too soon to be thinking about these factors as the main driver of recent productivity growth. The investment implications of this are clear: Stronger productivity growth implies a higher speed limit for the economy.

Persons: —, it's, we'll Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, Labor, P Global, Manufacturing, Capital, Employers, downturns, Professional Locations: Silicon Valley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Fed is only likely to deliver 3 or 4 rate cuts this year, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed is only likely to deliver 3 or 4 rate cuts this year, says economistNeil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research says the U.S. economy is on "pretty firm ground" and explains why he is not concerned about a recession this year.

Persons: Neil Dutta Organizations: Macro Locations: U.S

☆ Good news for economy shouldn't mean the Fed needs to stay hawkish: Wilmington Trust's Meghan Shue
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGood news for economy shouldn't mean the Fed needs to stay hawkish: Wilmington Trust's Meghan ShueNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research head of U.S. economics, and Meghan Shue, Wilmington Trust head of investment strategy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Wilmington, Meghan Shue Neil Dutta, Meghan Shue Organizations: Wilmington Trust Locations: hawkish, Wilmington

☆ Theory About the Fed, Inflation, and Rates That May Wreck the Economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

After spending the past two years trying to get inflation under control by raising interest rates, the Fed is inching toward cutting rates soon. Setting interest rates should be about weighing costs and benefits for everyone, not engineering outcomes for a favored constituency. When people (usually those with a vested political interest) try to accuse the Fed of being biased, it erodes confidence. The real reason for the accusationsThe entire conspiracy theory about a political Fed is weak on its face and baseless on its merits. What makes anyone so sure they'll fare better in 2024 with the rate of inflation slowing, interest rates falling, and stocks rising?

Persons: there's, it's, Joe Biden's, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Biden, It's, Trump, Ro Khanna, Powell, Taylor, Bill Dudley, Dudley, Dudley's, Chris Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Democratic, Trump, Biden, New York Fed Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan

☆ After 3 years of pain, America has finally achieved economic nirvana
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

The October jobs report — with the economy adding just 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% — was a disappointment. Of particular notice, the unemployment rate has increased by half a percentage point over the past six months. A simple way to show that things are still in balance is to look at Okun's law, a relationship between movements in the unemployment rate and economic activity. The historical record shows that once it rises half a percentage point, the unemployment rate tends to rise even more. The unemployment rate is already above the Fed's year-end forecast of 3.8% — the first time that's happened since March 2022.

Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, It's, we're, What's, what's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro Locations: joblessness, nonfarm payrolls

☆ Wall Street reversal: More and more economists are changing their minds and declaring US recession fears dead
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It joins the Federal Reserve and other economists in casting recession concerns to the side. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. After much hemming and hawing from economists and Wall Street, Bank of America is the latest to revise its predictions — and says a severe economic downturn isn't likely. In doing so, BofA is joining a rising chorus saying that fears of a recession were unfounded. The most recent inflation data were quite encouraging."

Persons: hemming, hawing, Neil Dutta, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen Organizations: of America, Federal Reserve, Service, Wall, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Federal, Market Committee, Fitch Locations: Wall, Silicon, American

☆ Forget recessions and vibecessions, we're in the middle of a confused-as-hell-cession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Sirena Bergman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk is confused as hell by the economy. It feels like a recession is coming, but the details are hard to understand for the average person. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. No wonder we're all spending less time doing our jobs, we're too exhausted from trying to figure this all out. It's a confused-as-hell-cession, and Elon Musk has never been more relatable.

Persons: Elon Musk, you've, you'll, Neil Dutta, who's, It's Organizations: Service, Elon, York Life Investments, Macro Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Labor markets will hold up better than price inflation, says RenMac's Neil Dutta
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor markets will hold up better than price inflation, says RenMac's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his case for avoiding a recession, tailwinds of fiscal policy, and understanding the uptick in consumer delinquency rates as a credit normalization.

Persons: RenMac's Neil Dutta Neil Dutta Organizations: Email Labor, Macro

☆ 'I've seen this show before': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still barreling toward the US economy — and stocks are due to suffer as misguided optimism fuels
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There's a fairly simple way to characterize Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards' latest note to clients. Bears are boys who cried wolf (recession), and investors are the shepherd who have become sick of the ongoing warnings and have stopped heeding their calls. Societe GeneraleAll of this optimism is likely a mistake, Edwards said as he doubled down on his recession call. In an May note, Edwards said "recession is a done deal," citing The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which has been at recessionary levels for months now. The indicators takes into account variables like manufacturing activity, stock performance, consumer confidence, housing market activity, and bond market activity.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, downgrades, —, I'm, Michelle Cluver, Jason Draho, Neil Dutta, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Societe Generale, Bears, Generale All, Generale, Investors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, X, Federal Reserve, UBS, Macro

☆ Wall Street Recession: Stock Market Crash Predictions Are Wrong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street analysts and economists have always had a tendency to fall in love with their forecasts. This stubbornness helps explain why Wall Street is having an exceptionally hard time letting go of the idea that a recession is just around the corner. Despite the year-plus in which analysts have been arguing that a recession is imminent, none of the arguments behind the predictions stand up to scrutiny. Bear growlsOver the past year, Wall Street pessimists' reasons for an approaching recession have shifted. The drag from the US housing market is fading.

Persons: doomsayers, it's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Street, Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro

☆ Stocks would be a trade 'to rent not own', says Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStocks would be a trade 'to rent not own', says Renaissance Macro's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the April jobs report and what it means for the Federal Reserve and economy.

☆ Morgan Stanley's wealth business just keeps on winning
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It's good to be Morgan Stanley these days. Amid a difficult market for Wall Street banks — thanks in large part to non-existent deal flow — Morgan Stanley's massive wealth business has been paying off big time. But Morgan Stanley's success isn't coming in a vacuum. -Meanwhile, UBS, arguably Morgan Stanley's biggest competitor in the space, was begrudgingly saddled with Credit Suisse's carcass. With wealth advisors, a key part of hiring includes offering "bonuses" that are actually loans.

☆ Wall Street Investors Recession Bet May Cause Bond, Stock Market Crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

And it's becoming increasingly clear that the bond market is reading the economic tea leaves all wrong. On the economic side, the bond market view would probably look something like the Fed's latest GDP projections. So if the bond market ends up being right about the economy, there would be a serious, ugly wake-up call for the stock market. I don't think the Wall Street aphorism about the bond market being "right" holds up this time. On the other hand, the bond market would take it squarely on the chin.

☆ Goldman Sachs partners are pissed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( Matt Turner | Dave Smith | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

On the agenda today:But first: Lara O'Reilly, our senior correspondent covering the advertising industry, looks ahead to the Super Bowl. Insider's Aki Ito breaks down why grandiose job titles like "senior executive vice president" are suddenly all the rage. According to a new study, early-career job titles have changed drastically in the past few years. While it's not clear how widespread this discontent is — Goldman has some 400 partners — some partners are already talking about who might replace CEO David Solomon if it comes to that. Inside the drama at Goldman SachsRead more:Tyler Le/InsiderGoogle's search engine is about to change.

☆ A conversation with Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary on ChatGPT and how to invest in artificial intelligence.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Kevin O'LearyKevin O'Leary is the chairman of O'Leary Ventures, a media personality, and veteran investor. Kevin O'Leary: I'm looking at the ChatGPT deal right now from an equity perspective, deciding what allocation I want to put into it. Some of the biggest firms on Wall Street are warning their clients not to trust the stock market rally. This strategist said you can tell the stock market surge is out of steam because the dollar's no longer on the retreat. Make these undervalued investments now while the stock market rally unwinds after a red-hot jobs report.

☆ Harvey Schwartz has his work cut out for him at Carlyle. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But first, a Wall Street firm finally finds its CEO. Harvey Schwartz Goldman Sachs1. In many ways, Carlyle and Harvey Schwartz are perfectly imperfect for each other. Might as well call it "Carefree Carlyle," because that's the vibes I'm getting under the soon-to-be Schwartz era. Click here to read more about what'll be expected of Harvey Schwartz as CEO of Carlyle.

☆ Awful Stock Market Analysts, Wall Street Economists Are Costing Investors Money
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

One type of data point to be wary of involves vehicles for confirmation, which use old data to confirm what an analyst already believes. The index is also revamped after every recession — given new weights and components so the new index perfectly signals the recession that just happened. Let's assume the ISM signals a turning point in the business cycle when it runs below 50 for three consecutive months. In a bull market, when rising stocks lift all boats, these analysts are still making money while arguing the downside just "hasn't happened yet." No single data point is a substitute for good judgment, which is the best leading indicator of all.

☆ Overall, there are some things to like about the market here, says Bespoke's Hickey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOverall, there are some things to like about the market here, says Bespoke's HickeyNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research head of economic research, and Paul Hickey, Bespoke Investment co-founder, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss Dutta's thoughts on the economy, if Hickey agrees with Neil and more.

☆ The latest terrible news for the stock market: The economy is booming again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Yes, the Fed has slowed activity in certain corners — most notably the housing market — but by and large the economy is still standing. When that happens, investors and consumers better buckle up: There will be more pain ahead for the stock market and the US economy. For a Fed that is trying to slow the economy, this is not a welcome development. At a minimum, it's tough to cut interest rates when the economy is defying expectations. If that's right, we might be seeing yet another false dawn in the stock market.

☆ Gary Vaynerchuk says people are massively underestimating how scary the economy will look in 3 to 6 months and advises two things you should do to prepare
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jenna Gyimesi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Gary Vaynerchuk warns people to make smarter spending decisions in a recent TikTok. He says that people are underestimating how scary the economy will be in as little as 3 months. "Start getting smart because it's hairy out there," Vaynerchuk warns. Gary Vaynerchuk is warning people to start making smarter spending choices now to prepare for a looming recession in the coming months. Vaynerchuk warns that unless you have massive amounts in savings, you need to get smarter about your spending.

☆ Premarket stocks: Markets are starting to act super strange
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

A weakening labor market puts downward pressure on wages and inflation. The labor market is still tight with about 1.7 job openings for every unemployed worker in the US. New private employment data on Wednesday by payroll services firm ADP suggested that the labor market isn’t losing any steam. The rise in oil gave a lift to energy stocks, helping to boost the overall market, reports Paul R. La Monica. Plus: US Department of Labor reports weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.

☆ All the economic good news, from jobs to inflation, was just a momentary blip. The worst is yet to come.
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-30 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

From inflation to consumer spending, there are clear signs that the economy is still in real danger of being pushed into a recession. While Americans' expectations for inflation over the next 12 months have ebbed somewhat, they're still sitting at 6.2%. With strong private demand, consumers are signaling that while labor-market conditions are strong, momentum is slipping. This means the increase in consumers' spending in the first half of the year was driven exclusively by them tapping into their savings. Prematurely easing inflation-reduction policy with inflation rates still elevated risks pushing up inflation expectations and entrenching a higher inflation rate into the economy.

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